Yet his reasoning was sound.
Had Obama endorsed the protests in the slightest degree, Moussavi’s movement would have lost the legitimacy it had achieved by virtue of its grassroots origins. U.S. intervention would have focused the Iranian historical memory on the intensely unpopular Operation Ajax, a C.I.A.-engineered coup that ousted Prime Minister Mohammed Mosaddeq in 1953. A Green victory would, without question, have been tainted by claims that it had required a pact with the “Great Satan”—Ahmadinejad’s lavish, almost fawning epithet for America.
Moreover, the extent of the current regime’s grasp on power is so great that nothing short of military intervention would have provided substantive and effective aid to the opposition party. Strong allies of Ahmadinejad control the five most powerful branches of government: the Revolutionary Guard, the Guardian Council, the National Security Council, the office of the Presidency, and the office of the Supreme Leader. As the opposition movement strengthened, the entire regime prepared to fight for its life. Only the deployment of both air and ground forces could have defeated them; anything less would have been futile and, more importantly, seemed desperate and impotent.
As we know now, of course, Obama’s support for the protests would also have severely undermined his ability to engage in productive dialogue with President Ahmadinejad once the upheaval ended. Surely, his vision for a nuclear compromise with Iran would have fallen by the wayside. Although the Iranian president has whined that Obama “interfered,” the international community has responded to these claims with dismissive laughter. By now, it is clear that Obama has won the first round of what will undoubtedly become a prolonged duel with Ahmadinejad: He hedged his support perfectly and never once gave the Iranian government the pleasure of accusing the U.S. of meddling in its internal affairs—a claim that would have won the ruling mullahs significant political capital at home.
Instead, Obama observed from the sidelines, where he could safely watch the building pressure for regime change without applying any ounce of it himself. For his expert indifference, he is currently the only leader in the Western world with the diplomatic legitimacy and bargaining power to stipulate, demand, and effect real change in Iran. Obama is a greater ally to the Green protesters than they would ever believe—but this, of course, is the point.
